Australian Magazine

Speaking out against Labour and the Coalition on LNG projects, market reform, and gas policy, Saul Kavonic, the vocal energy analyst for MST Financial, dominated Australia’s 2025 energy discussion. His astute observations on the Santos purchase, the North West Shelf, and worldwide energy shocks changed the national conversation about Australia’s gas future.

Overview

Saul Kavonic is one of the few analysts who has a significant impact on Canberra and the commodities market.

He is a political analyst and economist who serves as Head of Energy Research at MST Financial. He has a scathing voice that isn’t scared to criticise the Coalition or Labour.

In addition to appearing on Sky News and ABC The Business, he publishes a weekly column for The Australian and runs sponsored advertisements on X (previously Twitter) to promote it.

Saul Kavonic shaped the national conversation over LNG expansion, gas reservations, and Australia’s energy destiny throughout 2025.

Slamming Dutton’s “Populist Gas Plan,” Saul Kavonic

Kavonic referred to Peter Dutton’s domestic gas reservation policy, which required exporters to sell 20% of their supply domestically at $10 per gigajoule, as a “populist anti-market betrayal” when it was announced in March 2025.

He warned that the idea would become a “political noose” and replicate Labor’s 2022 price-cap error, saying that $10 per gigajoule would not support gas investment.

He maintained that it would reduce supplies, harm ties with Japan, and ultimately result in higher costs for Australians.

The Australian Workers Union (AWU) asked Labour to implement an even stricter reservation requirement, while industry groups denounced the proposal.

The proposal was also attacked by environmental and climate organisations, such as the Climate Council and proponents of clean energy, who warned that rather than boosting renewables, it strengthened reliance on fossil fuels.

Regarding Labor’s North West Shelf Delay, Saul Kavonic

Saul Kavonic targeted Labor’s management of Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf (NWS) extension in May.

Kavonic described the approval of a 40-year life extension until 2070 by Environment Minister Murray Watt as “expected, indeed inevitable,” but “seven years late.”

He warned that it would have been “economically diabolical” to reject the project and accused Labour of postponing approval until after the election in order to avoid offending environmentally conscious voters.

He added that the project supports thousands of regional employment in Western Australia and that without clearance, Karratha could have died and Australia would lose about 10% of its domestic gas supply.

After Watt succeeded Tanya Plibersek, Kavonic commended Watt’s practical approach, claiming that Australia’s approval climate improved with the transition from “inner-city green politics” to a resource-state minister.

Labour justified the timing by pointing to more information regarding Murujuga rock art that was needed from UNESCO and bureaucratic delays from the WA Government.

• Australia was asked to “ensure the total removal of degrading acidic emissions currently impacting the Murujuga Cultural Landscape” in UNESCO’s written remark.

Watt gave the project his approval under stringent air quality and heritage requirements.

Meg O’Neill, CEO of Woodside, stated:

“To fully comprehend the meaning of the conditions, our team is collaborating with the department.”

The “Elegant Solution” for Browse Gas by Saul Kavonic

Referred to as a “elegant solution,” Saul Kavonic suggested in June that the Browse Basin gas be sent to INPEX’s Ichthys LNG project in Darwin.

He pointed out that Darwin is the more cost-effective and low-carbon choice because Browse is 900 km from the NWS but 150 km from Ichthys.

Additionally, he cautioned that Chevron might be forced to provide the NWS backfill due to federal “use-it-or-lose-it” provisions.

He claimed that projects like Equus were too expensive to depend on and were only a “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency” solution.

In the meanwhile, freedom was limited by export restrictions placed on Gina Rinehart’s and Ryan Stokes’ Perth Basin properties until 2030.

• Kavonic’s argument was summed up by Ben Harvey in The Nightly as “an economic, political, environmental, and social smoothie that will play havoc with Meg O’Neill’s guts.”

Saul Kavonic Issues a Warning About a Record-Set Energy Crisis

Saul Kavonic foresaw a “energy crisis we’ve not actually seen before” when the conflict between Iran and Israel broke out in June 2025.

Attacks on Kharg Island or closing the Strait of Hormuz may remove millions of barrels per day, bringing oil prices down below $100 per barrel, he told Sky News Business Now.

• He cautioned, “We’re not prepared for a major disruption; strategic reserves are at record lows.”

His projections were in line with AMP senior economist Shane Oliver’s prediction that petrol prices in Australia may increase by 12 cents per litre, however Peter Khoury of the NRMA stated that the results were “impossible to forecast.”

The $36.4 billion Santos takeover and Saul Kavonic

Abu Dhabi’s XRG consortium, supported by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), made a $36.4 billion offer to buy all of Santos Ltd. in June 2025.

“To promote energy security in the area, we propose to purchase 100% of Santos,” an XRG representative stated.

Soon later, Kirsten Aiken presented Saul Kavonic to ABC’s The Business, where he questioned whether the federal government had quietly requested that the consortium halt the transaction.

He issued a warning that such meddling may undermine investor trust and harm Australia’s standing in the open market.

The four-minute, nine-second piece solidified Kavonic’s reputation as the leading energy analyst.

The Santos Retraction of Saul Kavonic

Saul Kavonic clarified on June 19 that his previous remark regarding Santos director shareholdings had been misunderstood.

• “Outspoken Santos analyst retracts his observation” was the headline in the AFR.

The story demonstrated how his every remark is magnified by market sensitivity, especially considering his practice of promoting his views on X (Twitter) to directly reach investors and regulators.

READ MORE : Saul Kavonic’s Surprise Retraction Stuns Energy Market

Bowen’s East-Coast Gas Review with Saul Kavonic

Chris Bowen announced intentions to expand Western Australia’s 15% domestic gas reserve concept to the east coast by July 2025.

Although Kavonic cautioned that a retroactive policy could exacerbate shortages and discourage investors, he suggested it might stabilise supply if forward-looking.

In support of his claim that market design, not exports, is the primary cause of price discrepancy, he referenced AEMO statistics indicating that in Q1 2025, gas averaged $8.24 per GJ in Washington compared to $13.26 per GJ on the east coast.

In Japan, where LNG security is regarded as national security, he mentioned trade difficulties.

Following meetings in Tokyo, WA Premier Roger Cook highlighted “serious trade concerns” expressed by Japanese authorities.

Resuming his long-standing disagreement with Energy Minister Chris Bowen, whose ad hoc policy changes he has frequently lambasted, Kavonic stressed that Canberra must refrain from making “politically reactive decisions.”

He cited Advent Energy’s PEP 11 permit off the Sydney Basin as an example of a possible new supply, which, if developed, could contribute sizable east-coast reserves.

Saul Kavonic’s Wider Impact

Over the course of 2025, Saul Kavonic become a unique analyst who connects public discourse, policy, and economics.

He revealed inconsistencies in both main parties, denouncing the Coalition’s populism and Labor’s political prudence.

His combination of frank criticism and quantitative understanding changed the way Australians perceive the story of the gas market.

Saul Kavonic continues to be the nation’s most vocal, data-driven spokesperson for an industry that must strike a balance between energy security and climate targets.

READ MORE : Mark Buddle’s Ex Mel Ter Wisscha Exposed – The Racy Past She Tried to Hide